As President Trump prepares to meet Vladimir Putin, the great unknown is what a potential peace deal brokered by the two leaders might actually look like. Based on Trump’s limited but telling comments, a controversial and complex agreement could be emerging.
The centerpiece appears to be a “swapping of territories.” This could mean Ukraine formally cedes Crimea and parts of the Donbas to Russia. In return, Russia might withdraw from other occupied territories in the south and east, which Trump alluded to when he said Ukraine would “get some back.”
The deal would likely involve security guarantees, but their nature is unclear. It is doubtful Russia would agree to Ukraine joining NATO, so a potential compromise might be a neutrality clause for Ukraine, backed by security assurances from a coalition of countries, including the U.S. and Russia itself.
Finally, the deal would have to address sanctions. A phased lifting of sanctions on Russia would likely be a key demand from Putin, tied to the implementation of the deal’s various components. This framework, however, remains speculative and is fraught with points of contention that could easily derail the talks in Alaska.