Despite Donald Trump’s confident proclamations that he “deserves” the Nobel Peace Prize, the consensus among seasoned Nobel observers is that his chances are, in the words of one expert, “a long shot.” For his supporters, understanding the specific criteria and values of the Nobel committee is key to tempering expectations ahead of the announcement.
The primary reason for optimism in the Trump camp is the Abraham Accords. This is a real, tangible foreign policy success. However, the Nobel committee’s evaluation is not a simple checklist of achievements. They operate within a specific worldview that prioritizes multilateralism, international law, and long-term, sustainable peace—areas where Trump’s record is viewed critically.
A major obstacle is his administration’s approach to global cooperation. The “America First” policy led to withdrawals from the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal. While supporters may see this as prioritizing national interests, the Nobel committee sees it as undermining the global fraternity it is mandated to promote.
Another significant issue is his rhetoric. The committee values diplomacy and bridge-building language. Trump’s style is often confrontational and has been criticized for deepening political and social divisions. As Nina Græger of the Peace Research Institute Oslo stated, “his rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective.”
While the nomination is an honor and the Abraham Accords are a noteworthy achievement, the Nobel Peace Prize is a unique award with a very specific set of values. Trump’s entire political project represents a challenge to many of those values. Therefore, even his most ardent supporters should be prepared for the committee to choose a laureate who more closely fits its traditional mold.