The most perilous question hanging over President Donald Trump’s Mideast peace summit is one the current ceasefire deal deliberately avoids: After the war, who will rule Gaza? The lack of a clear plan for post-war governance creates a dangerous vacuum that threatens to undermine any long-term stability in the territory.
The Israeli offensive has effectively dismantled Hamas’s ability to govern, but no consensus has emerged on what should replace it. Various ideas have been floated, including an interim international administration, a revitalized Palestinian Authority, or a council of local Palestinian leaders, but none has gained traction.
This issue is a major point of contention. Israel is adamant that Hamas cannot be allowed to return to power and will likely demand a security role in a post-war Gaza to prevent the group from rearming. However, many Palestinians and Arab states would resist any solution that looks like a renewed Israeli occupation.
The summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, which Trump will co-chair, is the first major forum where this critical issue will be debated among key regional players. The discussions will be fraught with difficulty, as they touch upon the core elements of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including questions of sovereignty, security, and political legitimacy.
Without a viable and broadly accepted plan for governing Gaza, the future looks bleak. The territory could descend into lawlessness, become a battleground for rival factions, or see Hamas gradually reassert control. Finding a workable answer to the question of “who rules?” is the single greatest challenge facing Trump and the international community.