With the Iran war now in its third week, US oil prices are showing no sign of cooling, and another volatile Monday session is expected. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, noting that $4 gasoline remains a real near-term possibility. Three weeks of escalating military conflict have completely upended the energy pricing landscape for American consumers.
The price surge traces back to February 28, when the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran, a move that immediately triggered a sustained global oil price escalation. From below $3 per gallon before the conflict, the national average has climbed 23% to $3.70, driven by a combination of infrastructure damage and shipping disruptions. Consumer groups have warned that the continued pace of price increases is placing unsustainable pressure on household budgets.
Friday’s US attack on Kharg Island, a facility that lies at the heart of Iran’s oil export operations, significantly tightened an already strained global supply environment. Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively removed about 20% of global oil supply from international markets. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude dipped to $94 following a Sunday spike to $100.
California has emerged as the state most affected by the price crisis, with average pump prices exceeding $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations charging above $8. Diesel prices for commercial transportation could rise to $5.15 per gallon nationally. The leaders of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have engaged the White House directly to warn of deepening supply risks, with Exxon’s Darren Woods cautioning specifically about the inflationary threat posed by speculative market trading.
US stock markets opened the week with modest optimism, the S&P 500 gaining approximately 1% as crude prices temporarily retreated. Oil company stocks have hit all-time highs since the conflict began, underscoring the financial paradox of a crisis that enriches energy sector investors while burdening ordinary consumers. The market will remain highly sensitive to any developments in the military campaign and the diplomatic situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.