The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran entered its third week Thursday with no ceasefire in sight and oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel as Iran continued to strike energy targets across the Middle East. Diplomatic channels appear frozen, with President Trump vowing to press ahead with military operations while Iran escalates both its military actions and its rhetoric. Global markets are increasingly factoring in a protracted conflict.
Iranian forces struck merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and facilities near Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. The Thai vessel Mayuree Naree was among those hit, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq shut all crude oil export ports, and Oman cleared its main terminal as a precautionary measure.
Brent crude rose 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 a barrel before settling at around $98. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from around $60 at the start of the year to a weekly peak of $119 before partially retreating. Iran’s military warned of $200-per-barrel oil and accused the US of destabilizing regional security.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude in a record coordinated action. The United States pledged 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with delivery beginning within a week over approximately 120 days. President Trump said the release would substantially reduce oil prices as the campaign concludes.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel from $66. Deutsche Bank flagged mounting stagflation risk. Asian markets fell, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.6% and South Korea’s Kospi losing 1.2%.